SVR-FD 05-15-13

Forecast for next seven days, specifically 5/19, 5/20

Sunday 5/19 (GFS)

Trigger/Target
Cold front extending from MN thru TX with a surface low attached over OK. Focus area Central/Eastern Kansas.

Winds
250mb -  jet nosed over Central Kansas. This has slowed since model run 24 hours ago.
H5 - 60 kt southerly flow over E KS, (unidirectional?)
850mb - llj lost a little intensity over E KS. llj max as 45kts.
~ 850 and 500 are unidirectional (straight line wind event?)
Surface - south winds still giving way to unidirectional winds with 850 and 500

Moisture
60-65° surface dewpoints.

(going to stop there. Not chasing on Sunday and not in forecast area)


Monday 5/20 (GFS)

Trigger/Target
Cold front now over NW Missouri at 18z then move across state by 0z.

Winds
250mb jet streak nose right into NW missouri by 18z/.
500mb winds ejecting right into the same area. 65kts out of the sw. strengthens up to 75kts at 0z
850mb - 50kt LLJ over Western MO. winds out of the south
surface - winds backing from the se 5-10kts,
Bulk Shear - impressive bulk shear from surface up to H7 atleast 45kts. 



Moisture
65+ surface dp over NW/NC Mo. Models have been overdoing them a little but expect them to be in the 60's.

~nice 14° dp in the 850mb area over same area.
~nice mixing up to 850mb from just west of KIRK down to SE KS.

Instability
~Crazy SBCAPE across Missouri during the time period. 18z CAPE above 3000 j/kg over Northern Missouri. It increases by 0z to 5000 j/kg over Eastern MO. Pretty much a certainty these numbers are being overdone do to high temp/dp across the area but still impressive.
~LI - -9 to -10 across Northern MO.
~SuperComp - seeing 4-6 by 18z from NC MO to STL area. Bumps up to 10-15 from E KS to OKC by 0z. This would suggest that the cold front may still be in NW MO by 0z.
~EHI - highest EHI values as of 18z will be in extreme NW MO into NE. By 0z EHI is strongest over NE MO/WC IL. Seeing the same EHI values across E KS to OKC like the SuperComp.

Other Notes:
The bulk shear really caught my attention. If this would be tomorrow I would be targeting the Chillicothe, MO area. Everything we need for tornadic activity is there. SPC already has noticed this system on D6.


Images for Monday:
CINH 0z

LCL 18z