(GFS for 18z and 0z, NAM for 18z only)
Trigger
Cold front over the plains which will move across Missouri Monday/Tuesday.
Winds
250mb: Nose of jet stream has moved further back into KS but still in W MO by 0z according to GFS. NAM is taking a much more aggressive move as it is putting the nose of the jet stream well into Central MO by 18z. (This change in GFS would suggest that Tuesday may be a better svr day for E MO)
H5: Big increase in H5 winds along hwy 36 starting at 18z. Speeds up to 70kts along that area. Winds on GFS are out of the SW. NAM is not as predominant as GFS with 45-60kt winds out of the SW.
850mb: GFS has an existing llj from earlier in the day by 18z but only at 40kts with the nose of the llj south of I-70. Same holds true for NAM. There is winds at 850 North of Hwy 36 but not very impressive.
Surface: GFS winds are now showing out of the SSW at 18z. That changes to the South by 0z. NAM agrees with this having SSW surface winds at 5-10kts.
Bulk Shear:
sfc-850: GFS has once again pulled back on the shear across N MO. Only some 20kt shear around the COU area at 18z. By 0z this kicks up from a line around P Hill MO over to COU then a break and another spot to the NE of UIN. Only 35kts. NAM has now shear thru this level.
Sfc-700: Once again the bulk of shear has decreased and moved south, now along the I-70 area across MO at 18z. By 0z seeing some 50kt shear across UIN. NAME has no shear again thru this level.
Sfc-500: Finally some good news. VERY good bulk shear from KC over to Macon MO at 18z, 60-70kts. By 0z GFS has much of that activity in IA. What little bulk shear at this level there is on NAM its here and there, nothing real solid.
Moisture
Surface: Good 70dp from KC to KIRK according to GFS at 18z. (image below) NAM is pulling back on dp around 60°. By 0z the 70 dp expand to cover all Missouri. bottom line, moisture will not be a problem.
850mb Dp: GFS has came back on its moisture in NW MO to 0-5° at 18z. at 0z looking at +15° south of I-70 with 12-15° from St. Joe to NC MO. NAM agrees with 18z GFS.
Mixing: Nothing really has changed at the surface, still have good mixing. 16-18 from KC to NC MO at 18z for GFS. Mixing stays the same for 0z except central MO towards UIN sees a little jump. NAM at 18z is the same but backed off a little. 850 mixing is still impressive as well. hwy 36 towards Chillicothe is upwards of 7-10 at 18z with the same at 0z excepting heading up I-35. This is going to be the main item that determines chase location. (image below) NAM isnt as pronounced as GFS.
Instability
SBCAPE: GFS CAPE at 18z has backed off for NW Mo but still decent at 2000 j/kg from KC to NC MO. By 0z it blows up with 3000 j/kg common across all of MO. Even seeing a spot of 4000 j/kg in the Pike Counties up to UIN. Little different layout for 18z NAM. Increases of CAPE begin on that KC/NC MO line starting at 2000 j/kg with 2500 in the Macon/KIRK area.
LI: Surprise surprise, KC to NC MO like is the spike for LI on 18z GFS as it increase rapidly from 0 to -12 in that area. -13 across all of MO at 0z with a spot of -14 right around UIN. NAM is not as aggressive with LI at 18z. -8 along the line previously mentioned, higher values down by Springfield MO.
SuperComp: Weird 7-10 around STL on 18z GFS with 4-7 along I-70. 0z GFS has 7-20! from COU to UIN and then towards ILX. Interestingly, only 2-4 in NW MO. 18z NAM is not as aggressive with only 2-4 along Hwy 36.
3km EHI: Again weird 3-4 in the STL areal on 18z GFS. By 0z the same line holds true as it did for SuperComp on line from COU/UIN/ILX. 6-8 in UIN extending to the NE. 18z NAM is again not being that aggressive as GFS.
SigiTor: First look at this with NAM... Not impressive, less then 1 across MO. Not a surprise though considering what it was doing with SuperComp and EHI.
Other
CIN: Thank you GFS, still putting a big "go there" sign on 18z (image below). Line from KC/NC MO still at 0 CIN. NAM at 18z has NO CIN for MO.
LCL: Little bit in the Chillicothe area but for the most part it follows the same path as CIN. 18z NAM is putting 750-1000 LCL across MO north of 36.
NAM SimRader: showers out of MO by 15z,Storms firing on Lincoln Co at 18z.
Cloud Cover: GOOD NEWS! N MO looking at most 30% cloud cover by 18z.
Notes/Target:
If you take pieces of GFS and pieces of NAM then this still looks like an impressive day across Monday. sfc-500 bulk shear is good, Instability is still there as well. Was a little worried in previous runs or lingering shower activity or cloud cover, looks like that may not be a problem. Target area is along that KC/NC MO line by 18z.
18z GFS Surface Dp
CIN 18z GFS
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