(ETA based)
Trigger
Cold front located over W MO tailing down to central OK with a surface low attached over Kansas.
Winds
250mb: Still seeing a deep trough digging into the central plains thru the weekend. Progression has slowed a little since previous SVRFD now putting the nose of the jet in extreme NW MO at 0z. 50-60kts.
H5: still showing good SW winds at 500mb heading into N MO.45kts avg but a streak of 50 kts thru KC over towards Chillicothe.
850mb: 18z LLJ now shifted a bit more to the east located from COU to KIRK over to KEOK. 40-45kt llj with winds at a 190°. 0z broadens the llj for all of Western Mo and E. IL.
Surface: still seeing good wind flow from the gulf. winds are not as backing as in previous run for W MO but are for E MO.
Bulk Shear: a lot of differences between levels compared to yesterday.
18z - sfc-925 is now gone. sfc-850 just a little north of hwy 36 along 35 up to the IA boarder. sfc-700 is the same area just a little stronger. sfc-500 is the most impressive w. 50kt shear in that same area.
0z - sfc-850 30kt dot over COU. sfc-700 30kts over Pike MO. sfc-500 fingers coming down the river of 30kts, 40-60 kts on the IA/MO boarder.
Moisture
Surface: DP are still hovering around 70-75° thru pretty much all of Northern Missouri. This also works its way down thru KC down to SW KS. Models are probably still overdoing those numbers but expect dp to be in the upper 60's.
805 Td: still seeing some 14-18° dp in the low levels. probably being a little overdone as well but still within severe perimeters. 18° dp are located over St. Joe, KC then down to SW KS at 0z. that is a little concerning considering the cf should be well across Missouri by that time.
Mixing: surface mixing is decent at 18z. around 14-16. by 0z that amplifies over NE MO and WC IL. 850 mixing still pretty decent across W MO at 18z by 0z the bulk of mixing moves to central MO up to the IA boarder.
Instability
SBCAPE: {5000j/kq across Pike-STL on sunday at 0z.} CAPE still looks good for Monday. 3000 j/kg at 18z down towards Springfield, MO up thru Warrenton, close to I-35 the over to KIRK and UIN. By 0z 3000 j/kg is covering all of the MO/IA boarder with a finger heading thru St Joe and KC and another finger heading thru COU.
LI: follow the same lines as CAPE does for 18z and 0z. -11 to -12 for all of N MO for 18z. By 0z still seeing the same numbers with a -13 north of KIRK.
SuperComp: 4-7 boxed in from west of I-35 and then North of hwy 36 extended past UIN. By 0z the highest numbers are past UIN?!?! Still 2-4 across Northern MO.
EHI: 3-4 at 18z from KIRK to UIN then by 0z 3 along the river up to 8 East of Pike IL.
Other
CIN: not as clear cut on the 18z run as to where the firing line will be as now those locations are seeing -100 CIN. lowest values are on a line from Springfield MO to Marshall. Extreme N MO has no CIN at 18z. By 0z it becomes much more evident where the line will be. No CIN from KIRK down to Columbia.
LCL: 18z- Extremely low LCL's in the NW corner of MO. COU and points south will have too high of LCL to help storms (above 1250). 0z LCL's are in good shape across all of MO.
Notes/Target:
~Not as clear cut today after the model run as it was yesterday. Location of CF is a bit harder then yesterday as it was BOOM there it is then. CF could be slowing down. Still believe storms will fire up along a line just East of KC with max potential of tornadic activity North of hwy 36. It will probably change but being on 36 seems like the best bet for Monday, maybe close to Chillicothe by 2pm and then work East as the day goes on. Overall still looks like the potential is there, not as excited today as I was yesterday though.
~Do need to keep in mind that overnight convection from Sunday night may be an issue for Monday.
~Luckily will be getting help from NAM models in the next day or so. Might clear up some timing issues.
SBCAPE at 18z
Sfc-500 Bulk Shear
SPC D4-8 Outlook (Day 4 - Sunday, Day 5 - Monday)
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